The 2026 monsoon ended 13% short: what IMD's numbers show
India's June–September monsoon delivered 759.4 mm of rain this year, 87% of the long period average, according to the India Meteorological Department. East, Northeast and southern India were hit hardest, El Niño is strengthening, and IMD expects below-normal rain in October.
What changed
- IMD's season-end figures put June–September 2026 rainfall at 87% of the long period average, 13% below normal.
The season in numbers
The southwest monsoon, which runs from June to September, brought 759.4 mm of rain to India as a whole in 2026. The normal for the season is 868.6 mm. In its press release of 1 October, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) put the season at 87% of the long period average (LPA), the benchmark it uses for a normal monsoon. That is a shortfall of 13%.
Tech Times, citing IMD's data, described it as the weakest monsoon since 2015.
Month by month
The season started badly. June rainfall was only 65% of the normal for the month; Tech Times reported that it was the fifth-driest June since records began in 1901.
July recovered to 101% of normal. August then fell back to 84%, and September ended at 92%. The two weak months, June and August, account for most of the season's deficit.
Where the rain fell short
The shortfall was uneven. East and Northeast India received 1,017.1 mm against a normal of 1,367.3 mm, a deficit of 26%. The South Peninsula received 542.0 mm against 716.2 mm, 24% below normal.
Central India came close to normal, with 952.8 mm against 978.0 mm (3% short), and Northwest India received 553.0 mm against 587.6 mm (6% short).
The El Niño factor
IMD says strong El Niño conditions now prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, where sea surface temperatures are well above average, and that they are expected to strengthen further through the end of the year. El Niño years have often brought weaker monsoons: Tech Times noted that roughly 60% of El Niño years since 1951 left India with deficient or below-normal rainfall.
The Indian Ocean Dipole, another influence on Indian rainfall, is neutral, and IMD's models expect it to stay neutral, although some international climate centres forecast a shift to positive conditions.
What comes next
IMD expected conditions to become favourable for the monsoon to withdraw from most of central and northwest India in the first week of October.
It forecasts below-normal rainfall for the country as a whole in October, with above-normal maximum temperatures over most parts of the country. For October to December, most parts of India are likely to receive below-normal rainfall, although rainfall over south peninsular India, which gets its northeast monsoon in this period, is most likely to be normal.
What it means for you
The monsoon is India's main rain season. It waters the kharif crop and refills the reservoirs and groundwater that people and farms draw on through the dry months. How much a 13% shortfall affects harvests, water supplies and food prices will depend on irrigation, stored water and the post-monsoon rains.
Farmers should follow the agromet advisories of IMD and their state agriculture department, and everyone can check IMD's weekly extended range forecasts for their region.
Why it matters
- Monsoon rain waters India's kharif crop and refills the reservoirs and groundwater used through the dry months.
- IMD expects October to be drier and warmer than normal for most of the country, as El Niño strengthens.
What remains uncertain
- The full effect on harvests, reservoirs and prices will become clearer as crop estimates and water storage data are published.
- IMD's October–December outlook is a probability forecast and can change as El Niño evolves.
Facts and evidence
June–September 2026 rainfall over India was 759.4 mm against a normal of 868.6 mm: 87% of the long period average, 13% below normal.
Monthly rainfall was 65% of normal in June, 101% in July, 84% in August and 92% in September.
East and Northeast India were 26% below normal and the South Peninsula 24% below; Northwest India was 6% and Central India 3% below normal.
IMD says strong El Niño conditions prevail and are expected to strengthen through the end of the year; the Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral.
IMD expected conditions to become favourable for the monsoon's withdrawal from most of central and northwest India in the first week of October.
IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall for the country in October, above-normal maximum temperatures over most parts, and below-normal October–December rainfall for most of India except south peninsular India, where it is most likely to be normal.
Tech Times described 2026 as the weakest monsoon since 2015 and June 2026 as the fifth-driest June since 1901.
Sources
India Meteorological Department: Press release: Current weather status and extended range forecast, 1 to 14 October 2026 (1 October 2026)Official record · EN
Press release: Current weather status and extended range forecast, 1 to 14 October 2026 (1 October 2026)
Read the original sourceNews On AIR (All India Radio): IMD forecasts normal post-monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India (30 September 2026)Official record · EN
IMD forecasts normal post-monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India (30 September 2026)
Read the original sourceTech Times: India Monsoon 2026 Ends With Worst Deficit in Over Decade, IMD Confirms (30 September 2026)Read at the source · EN
India Monsoon 2026 Ends With Worst Deficit in Over Decade, IMD Confirms (30 September 2026)
Read the original source